《黑色》日报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Iron Ore - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend. In the short - term, iron ore is expected to run with a slightly bullish bias. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. The spot is in the bottom - rebound stage. It is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The spot fundamentals have improved. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1]. - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indices all increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% - 0.5% [1]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The 45 - port average daily desulfurization volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 3.0% to 7191.0 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 3.9% to 8318.0 million tons [1]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons compared to Monday (weekly). The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 contract decreased by 0.74%, and the 09 basis increased by 11. The coke 01 contract decreased by 0.54%, and the 01 basis increased by 9. The J09 - J01 spread decreased by 3 [2]. Supply - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons. The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.0% to 931.0 million tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84% to 93.1 million tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.0% to 637.8 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 4.7% to 200.1 million tons [2]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 0.9%, and the 09 basis increased by 14. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 0.2%, and the 01 basis increased by 7. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased by 7 [2]. Supply - The raw coal output increased by 0.34% to 868 million tons, and the clean - coal output increased by 0.3% to 443.5 million tons [2]. Demand - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 million tons, and the average daily output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 47.2 million tons [2]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5% to 176.4 million tons. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 5.2% to 892.4 million tons, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% to 782.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 5.74% to 321.6 million tons [2].