大越期货贵金属早报-20250716

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals morning report released on July 16, 2025, by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department, focusing on gold and silver [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the mild CPI data boosting US stocks and bonds, the gold price declined. Even with the ongoing tariff issue, its impact on the gold price is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 2.4 yuan/gram. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to today's PPI data [4]. - For silver, the mild CPI data also led to a decline in the silver price, and the impact of tariffs has cooled down. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to around 280 yuan/kg. The silver price still has support, and attention should be paid to today's PPI data [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The mild CPI data boosted US stocks and bonds, causing the gold price to fall. US stocks closed mixed, European stocks closed down, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 4.80 basis points to 4.481%), the US dollar index rose 0.53% to 98.63, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $3330.50/ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the mild CPI data led to a decline in the silver price. COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99/ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is -4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 15 kg to 28,872 kg, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above it, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is -31, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt decreased by 1023 kg to 1,222,959 kg, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it, which is bullish. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:45: Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 FOMC voter) to speak on the US economy. - Time TBD: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to hold a press conference in Beijing; the 5th RISC - V China Summit from July 16 - 19 in Shanghai; the 2025 International Conference on Neuroscience and Brain - Computer Interface on July 16 in Baoding. - 14:00: UK June CPI. - 20:00: Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) to speak. - 20:30: US June PPI. - 21:15: US June industrial production; Cleveland Fed President Harlan (2026 FOMC voter) to speak. - 22:00: Fed Governor Barr to speak on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution. - Next day 02:00: Fed to release the Beige Book. - Next day 03:30: Atlanta Fed President Bostic to participate in a Fox Business News program. - Next day 06:30: New York Fed President Williams (permanent FOMC voter) to speak on the US economy and monetary policy [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is -4.6, and the futures warehouse receipt is 28,872 kg, an increase of 15 kg [4]. - Silver: The basis is -31, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 1,222,959 kg, a decrease of 1023 kg [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long position on July 15 was 198,038, an increase of 4,163 (2.15%) from July 14. The short position was 61,020, a decrease of 1,158 (-1.86%) from July 14. The net position was 137,018, an increase of 5,321 (4.04%) from July 14 [4][30]. - Silver: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased. The long position on July 15 was 481,474, a decrease of 6,368 (-1.31%) from July 14. The short position was 361,612, a decrease of 4,498 (-1.23%) from July 14. The net position was 119,862, a decrease of 1,870 (-1.54%) from July 14 [5][32]. Other Data - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly but was higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - Warehouse Receipts: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase significantly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts started to decrease but were higher than last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][40].