Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade inventories increasing. Overseas supplies arriving at the port for storage increased month - on - month, but the moderate restocking and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricted the port shipment rate. The domestic tire enterprises' capacity utilization rates varied last week. The production scheduling of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. Some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance, dragging down the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate slightly. This week, the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will boost the overall tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,650 lots, down 1,089 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 66,567 lots, up 1,192 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,912 lots, up 4,087 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,986 lots, up 1,272 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,389 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 150 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 215 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,470 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 61.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.15 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, down 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.03%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.05%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.06%, up 0.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250716
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:22