瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Domestic white sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. Later, supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to arrivals and summer consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract position is 312,832 lots, down 4,282 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts is 22,289, down 313; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -19,210 lots [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,414 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,543 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,605 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,774 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons [2] - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly export volume of sugar from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,561 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,432 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 370 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 201 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.47%, up 0.2 percentage points; that of put options is 7.47%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of white sugar is 6.62%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.53%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Pakistan cancelled a large - scale sugar import tender and submitted a revised tender to import 50,000 tons of sugar [2] - In the international market, the rainy season in Asia makes the supply outlook good, suppressing raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support [2] Data from Brazil - In the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 12.86%; the sugar production was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the three - year average [2] - In the first two weeks of July, Brazil exported 1,369,926.41 tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2]