瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures varied on Wednesday. The main contract EC2510 rose 1.4%, while the far - month contracts had a decline of -1% to -2%. The recent rebound of the spot index indicates that the price increase by leading shipping companies is likely to be implemented, reducing market concerns about peak - season freight rates. With the change of the main contract, the basis repair logic drove the sharp rise of near - month contracts. However, various economic data in the US suggest future economic activities may face greater challenges, and the container shipping index (European line) has weak demand expectations and large price fluctuations. But the rapid rebound of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC2510 main contract closed at 2153.00, up 62.3; EC2508 - EC2510 spread was 554.90, up 84.50; EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 394.00, up 104.00; EC contract basis was 268.94, down 27.00; EC main contract open interest was 18747, down 2808 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 2421.94, up 163.90; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1266.59, down 291.18; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1733.29, down 30.20; CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1313.70, down 29.29; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1726.41, up 32.11; Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1866.00, down 83.00; Panama Freight Index (daily) was 1990.00, down 41.00; average charter price of Panama - type ships was 14883.00, up 422.00; average charter price of Cape - type ships was 16909.00, up 914.00 [1] 3.3 Economic News - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 4.8% [1] - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement. Indonesia will buy US energy worth $15 billion, US agricultural products worth $4.5 billion and 50 Boeing aircraft. The US will impose a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports, and US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier treatment. The original plan was to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia starting from August 1 [1] - The EU has no intention to take any trade counter - measures before August 1. If trade negotiations with the US fail, the implementation of counter - measures may be postponed to August 6 [1] 3.4 Economic Indicators in the US - The US S&P Global Composite PMI index in June dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. Price pressure increased significantly. In May, core PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%. Real personal consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year. Personal income decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the largest decline since 2021 [1] 3.5 Eurozone Economic Situation - The German ZEW economic sentiment index reached a three - year high. The CPI in May was stable at 2.3%, but industrial output decreased by 2.4% month - on - month, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure [1]