瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250716

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The mainstream positions increasing support the iron ore price to rise, but the adjustment of steel prices may affect the rebound space of iron ore prices. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 773 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume is 690,377 lots, up 21,689 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 31.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 5,148 lots, up 15,032 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 3,000 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 99.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.93 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 821 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines is 798 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 25 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.45 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.40, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 808 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil is 2,987.10 tons, down 7.80 tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,883.20 tons, up 347.70 tons. The weekly inventory at 47 ports is 14,346.89 tons, down 139.01 tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,979.64 tons, up 61.07 tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,594.80 tons, up 781.80 tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 39.68 tons, down 0.72 tons; the operating rate is 62.83%, down 1.57%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 50.72 tons, down 1.59 tons. The BDI index is 1,783, up 120. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 US dollars/ton, up 0.48 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,318 tons, down 337 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.56%, down 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.43%, up 0.07%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.34%, up 4.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.45%, up 2.22% [2] Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,393.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 123.8 tons, with continuous inventory accumulation. From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,883.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 347.7 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,662.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 178.2 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,147.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 264.1 tons. The I2509 contract increased in position and rose on Wednesday. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the expiration date of the suspension of additional tariffs between the US and China, and the two sides' negotiations are in a "good situation", expecting talks in the next few weeks. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory in China changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued to decline slightly, but the molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support [2]