瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not contain information about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increases, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts do not significantly affect capacity fluctuations [2] - On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declines significantly, but prices gradually recover. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been adjusted down, and demand weakens marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to end the decline in overall production as profits stabilize, and cell manufacturers also have production cut plans [2] - Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increase last week gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level [2] - Polysilicon continues to rise today, with the overall open interest starting to decline and trading volume slowing down. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,945 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 475 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 71,783 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,962 lots; the price difference between August - September polysilicon is 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 34,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 575 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 705 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 US dollars/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Polysilicon production is 95,000 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 161 tons; the spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg per week, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton per month, a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Solar cell production is 7.0569 million kilowatts per month, a month - on - month decrease of 135,900 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 units per month, a month - on - month increase of 19,610,660 units; the import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 units per month, a month - on - month decrease of 8,021,950 units; the average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars per unit, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 US dollars per unit [2] 3.6 Industry News - Qingdao aims to build a 10 - million - kilowatt - level offshore new energy base by 2030, including developing offshore wind power and photovoltaic projects and promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry [2] - At the State Council Information Office press conference, it was mentioned that consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2]