合成橡胶产业日报-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost factors support the current price of cis - butadiene rubber, but downstream procurement remains cautious, and shipping resistance may increase. Short - term inventory levels are expected to increase slightly. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied last week. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after early - month maintenance boosted the overall capacity utilization rate, while the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises dragged down its capacity utilization rate. This week, the capacity utilization rate still has room for improvement, which will drive the overall tire enterprise capacity utilization rate. - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term. [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,525 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 20,703 lots, down 2,036 lots. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from various petrochemical companies in different regions decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 75 yuan/ton, down 0.46 yuan/ton. - The market price of butadiene in Shandong was down. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, Northeast Asian ethylene, and CFR Japan naphtha changed, with Brent down 0.5 dollars/barrel, WTI unchanged, Northeast Asian ethylene unchanged, and CFR Japan naphtha down 13.25 dollars/ton. The CFR China butadiene price was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 147,800 tons, unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons. The manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons, and the trader's inventory was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 10, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,800 tons, down 0.04 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6%. [2]