Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic daily urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled plants, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high because of substantial production profits [2]. - The country is gradually entering the off - season of agricultural demand, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some local areas. The compound fertilizer enterprises have good pre - sales for the autumn season, leading to an increase in their operating rate and procurement; the melamine operating rate has rebounded, but weak downstream demand may restrict its further increase [2]. - Recent urea export orders are still being executed, and the inventory of some urea enterprises is decreasing rapidly. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is mainly decreasing. However, the current urea enterprise inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. As the increase in agricultural demand decreases and the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [2]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 197,633 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,853, an increase of 3,554 [2]. - The number of Zhengzhou urea exchange warehouse receipts is 2,630, unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 57 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 427.5 dollars/ton and 410 dollars/ton respectively [2]. 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 48.9 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 96.77 million tons, a decrease of 5.08 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94%; the daily urea production is 197,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 0, unchanged; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 29.83%, an increase of 0.58%; the melamine operating rate is 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 billion tons, a decrease of 640,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. 5. Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a 7.46% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from last week, an 11.14% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the Chinese urea output is 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from last week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output is 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate is 85.26%, an increase of 0.94% [2]. 6. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250716
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:32