贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The higher-than-expected US CPI in June weakens the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The easing of Sino-US negotiations and the optimistic trade sentiment in some countries reduce the safe-haven demand, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, which is supported by geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases in the long term. The US dollar trend and subsequent economic data are the key disturbances [3]. - Copper: Trump's move to impose tariffs on copper has both explicit and implicit reasons. In the short term, copper prices may still be mainly volatile [15]. - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The tariffs imposed by Trump may suppress metals. The upside space of Shanghai aluminum is limited in the short term, and it is recommended to be bearish in the medium and long term. Alumina has an expected supply surplus, and there is still a short - term risk of a squeeze, but the upward momentum is weakening. The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strongly supported, but the demand is weak [34][35]. - Zinc: The supply side is gradually transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the traditional off - season. In the short term, focus on macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - Tin: Tin prices are still in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price and Market Analysis: The US 6 - month CPI weakens the interest - rate - cut expectation this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The safe - haven demand is reduced, but there is still an expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, and the US dollar trend and economic data are key factors [3]. - Data: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, ratios, and spreads are presented, such as SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [4][10][12]. Copper - Price and Market Analysis: Trump's tariff on copper is based on the 232 clause of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and aims to support the return of the US manufacturing industry. Copper prices may be volatile in the short term [15]. - Data: Copper futures and spot data are provided, including the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures, as well as spot prices, premiums, import profits and losses, and warehouse receipts [16][23][27]. Aluminum - Price and Market Analysis: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to accumulate. Trump's tariffs may suppress metals. Alumina has a supply surplus expectation, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34][35]. - Data: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [36][43][46]. Zinc - Price and Market Analysis: The supply side is transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the off - season. Focus on macro data and supply - side disturbances in the short term [62]. - Data: Zinc futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [63][68][71]. Nickel - Price and Market Analysis: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - Data: Nickel futures and related data are presented, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts, as well as data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86]. Tin - Price and Market Analysis: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - Data: Tin futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [93][98][101]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Market Analysis: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - Data: Lithium carbonate futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [109][112][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - Price and Market Analysis: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. - Data: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related data are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data [118][120][141].