芳烃橡胶早报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the near - term TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load decreased further, inventory continued to accumulate, basis declined, and spot processing fees weakened significantly. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, pay attention to the opportunity of increasing processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to rise month - on - month, and it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [9]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term supply decreased due to the production cut of Ningbo Dafa, and the processing fee is expected to run in a range - bound manner [9]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level without seasonal destocking, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded. The strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Margin Data: From July 9 to July 15, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.5, PTA processing margin changed from 107 to 147, and polyester gross profit decreased from 33 to - 68 [2]. - Market Situation: Near - term TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load decreased, inventory accumulated, basis declined, and spot processing fees weakened significantly. PX domestic start - up remained stable, overseas had some overhauls, and PXN weakened slightly [2]. - Outlook: Entering the inventory accumulation stage, the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Spot processing fees have been compressed to a very low level, and there may be a reduction in supply at the margin. Pay attention to the opportunity of increasing processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Data: From July 9 to July 15, 2025, the MEG outer - market price increased from 509 to 516, and MEG coal - based profit increased from 583 to 637 [9]. - Market Situation: Near - term domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to rise month - on - month, Saudi Arabian plants were restarting, port inventory accumulated at the beginning of next week, port shipments were okay during the week, downstream inventory levels increased, basis remained stable, and the profit - to - price ratio remained unchanged [9]. - Outlook: Iran and ethane supply have not decreased. With the increase in domestic start - up, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. The actual inventory is at a low level while the valuation is not low. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Data: From July 9 to July 15, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6730 to 6680, and short - fiber profit changed from 196 to 155 [9]. - Market Situation: Near - term supply decreased due to the production cut of Ningbo Dafa, start - up decreased to 92.3%, production and sales remained stable month - on - month, and inventory basically remained unchanged. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn continued to decline, inventory structure maintained raw - material inventory depletion and finished - product inventory accumulation, and the profit remained low [9]. - Outlook: Under the condition that the short - fiber profit and inventory pressure are acceptable, there is no obvious reduction or increase in supply. With weak domestic demand and high export growth, the processing fee is expected to run in a range - bound manner [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Margin Data: From July 9 to July 15, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber remained at 1735, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased from 13645 to 13995 [9]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level without seasonal destocking, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see [9]. Styrene - Price and Margin Data: From July 9 to July 15, 2025, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased from 910 to 905, and EPS domestic profit increased from 60 to 380 [12]. - Market Trend: The price of ethylene remained unchanged, while the prices of pure benzene and styrene fluctuated. The domestic profits of styrene - related products also showed different degrees of change [12].