燃料油早报-20250716

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: July 16, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread oscillated downward, the near-month spread declined, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then oscillated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8-9 month spread oscillated around $4.5. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then oscillated, with the 09 around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, the near month was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the exports of fuel oil from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season, but the East-West and internal-external spreads had dropped rapidly. The external low-sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal and external spread was running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [5] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened, the domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation was high. Attention could be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk of continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 427.74 | 416.69 | 420.81 | 410.97 | 412.56 | 1.59 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 476.00 | 467.49 | 475.48 | 469.20 | 466.16 | -3.04 | | Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 | -1.75 | -2.05 | -2.86 | -3.55 | -3.12 | 0.43 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 675.03 | 662.16 | 681.86 | 673.49 | 674.99 | 1.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO-Gasoil M1 | -199.03 | -194.67 | -206.38 | -204.29 | -208.83 | -4.54 | | LGO-Brent M1 | 22.33 | 22.20 | 23.03 | 23.04 | 23.87 | 0.83 | | Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 | 48.26 | 50.80 | 54.67 | 58.23 | 53.60 | -4.63 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 426.95 | 426.30 | 412.36 | 411.55 | 404.43 | -7.12 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 434.39 | 434.01 | 421.80 | 421.36 | 414.93 | -6.43 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 507.25 | 504.61 | 497.43 | 507.96 | 496.15 | -11.81 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.06 | 88.88 | 87.89 | 90.87 | 87.86 | -3.01 | | Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 | -2.03 | -1.67 | -2.86 | -4.96 | -4.13 | 0.83 | | Singapore VLSFO-Gasoil M1 | -159.19 | -153.10 | -152.96 | -164.48 | -154.01 | 10.47 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 420.79 | 418.55 | 404.43 | 402.60 | 395.38 | -7.22 | | FOB VLSFO | 516.44 | 512.29 | 504.95 | 514.89 | 501.64 | -13.25 | | 380 Basis | -5.30 | -5.40 | -6.05 | -7.05 | -6.98 | 0.07 | | High-Sulfur Internal-External Spread | -10.3 | -10.1 | -7.6 | -5.9 | -7.0 | -1.1 | | Low-Sulfur Internal-External Spread | 16.6 | 17.4 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.1 | -0.4 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2902 | 2910 | 2855 | 2883 | 2828 | -55 | | FU 05 | 2837 | 2848 | 2803 | 2825 | 2788 | -37 | | FU 09 | 2982 | 2972 | 2911 | 2922 | 2840 | -82 | | FU 01-05 | 65 | 62 | 52 | 58 | 40 | -18 | | FU 05-09 | -145 | -124 | -108 | -97 | -52 | 45 | | FU 09-01 | 80 | 62 | 56 | 39 | 12 | -27 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3568 | 3567 | 3520 | 3583 | 3529 | -54 | | LU 05 | 3472 | 3491 | 3451 | 3502 | 3451 | -51 | | LU 09 | 3692 | 3687 | 3640 | 3694 | 3639 | -55 | | LU 01-05 | 96 | 76 | 69 | 81 | 78 | -3 | | LU 05-09 | -220 | -196 | -189 | -192 | -188 | 4 | | LU 09-01 | 124 | 120 | 120 | 111 | 110 | -1 | [4]