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油脂油料早报-20250716
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-16 13:41

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean crush volume in June was higher than market expectations, while the soybean oil inventory dropped to a five - month low. The crush capacity reached a record level, but was not fully utilized due to the oversupply of soybean meal [1]. - Brazil's estimated soybean and soybean meal exports in July have increased compared to previous forecasts [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 showed a decline according to two different inspection agencies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean crush: In June, NOPA member units crushed 185.709 million bushels of soybeans, a 3.7% decrease from May and a 5.8% increase from June 2024. The average forecast of eight analysts was 185.195 million bushels. The daily crush volume in June was 6.19 million bushels, down from 6.22 million bushels in May [1]. - US soybean oil inventory: As of June 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member units dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% decline from the end of May and a 15.8% decrease from the same period last year. Analysts expected it to rise slightly to 1.374 billion pounds [1]. - US soybean meal and soybean oil production in May: The soybean meal production was 4,417,754 short tons, and the soybean oil production was 2.25336 billion pounds [1]. - Brazil's export forecast: Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.19 million tons (previously 11.93 million tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.25 million tons (previously 2.19 million tons) [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports: ITS data showed a 6.2% decline in palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 compared to the same period in June, while AmSpec data showed a 5.29% decrease [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 9 - 15, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis The report mentions protein meal basis but does not provide specific data [3]. Fat Basis The report mentions fat basis but does not provide specific data [6]. Fat and Oil Futures Spread The report mentions fat and oil futures spread but does not provide specific data [8]