农产品早报-20250716

Group 1: Corn and Starch Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Corn: Recent reserve auctions of imported corn have increased market supply slightly, easing market tension and leading some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and old - crop inventories support prices. In the long - term, increasing import profits may lead to more imports and weaker far - month prices [1]. - Starch: Some enterprises raised starch prices due to production losses this week. In the short - term, strong raw material prices will support starch prices, but high industry inventories will limit the rebound. In the long - term, weak downstream consumption and slow inventory reduction will restrict price increases. Consider shorting far - month contracts after a small profit repair [2]. Summary by Related Content - Corn: Market supply increased slightly due to reserve auctions. Old - crop inventories support prices in the short - term, and import increases may pose risks in the long - term [1]. - Starch: Price increases are limited by high inventories and weak downstream consumption [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are pressured by Brazil's high - supply during the peak crushing season, with support at the Brazilian ethanol price. There is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar due to accumulated risks in Brazil. The domestic market follows raw sugar, but Zhengzhou sugar has a smaller amplitude. Upcoming large imports will put pressure on the domestic market [3]. Summary by Related Content - International: Brazil's peak crushing season increases supply, and raw sugar may rebound. - Domestic: Follows raw sugar, but with smaller fluctuations. Upcoming imports will pressure the market [3]. Group 3: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton: Rapid inventory decline has driven up prices, but hedging pressure and weak downstream demand limit price increases. Prices may fall if demand worsens or there are macro risks; otherwise, they will oscillate [4]. Summary by Related Content - Cotton: Inventory decline boosts prices, but downstream factors limit upside potential [4]. Group 4: Eggs Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In early July, adverse weather affected egg storage and transportation, and weak demand led to a price decline. As the weather improves, prices will enter a seasonal upward trend, but high inventory may limit the rebound [4]. Summary by Related Content - Eggs: Weather affected prices in early July, and high inventory may limit the seasonal rebound [4]. Group 5: Apples Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - New - crop apple production may not differ much from last year, but regional differences exist. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. Spot prices rose significantly in 2025, and seasonal fruits are squeezing apple market share [7]. Summary by Related Content - Apples: New - crop production varies regionally. Off - season consumption, low inventory, and slow de - stocking. Spot prices rose, and seasonal fruits compete [7]. Group 6: Pigs Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Limited capacity reduction means long - term supply pressure remains. Mid - term price rebounds are not conducive to de - stocking. Futures prices have risen on expectations, but need spot verification. Spot price rebounds face resistance, and seasonal factors provide some support. Monitor factors like slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [7]. Summary by Related Content - Pigs: Long - term supply pressure, mid - term de - stocking challenges, futures - spot relationship, and factors to monitor [7].