永安期货有色早报-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully impact the CL spread in the short - term due to high US copper inventory. Attention should be paid to tariff exemptions for some countries. After the tariff implementation, the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - For zinc, prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak at home and weak in Europe overseas. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds, hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and look for long positions in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - For lead, prices decline slightly. Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. - For tin, prices fluctuate widely. Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. - For industrial silicon, production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. - For lithium carbonate, futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 165, and LME inventory increased by 850 tons [1]. - Market Situation: Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. The US has filled its annual copper import gap, and the CL spread may not fully reflect the tariff. The export of South American countries may be affected, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 40, and LME inventory increased by 11425 tons [1]. - Market Situation: Supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced in July [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and LME inventory increased by 5200 tons [2]. - Market Situation: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and LME inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Market Situation: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 [10]. - Market Situation: Supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing [10]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the lead price decreased slightly, and LME inventory increased by 10125 tons [12][21]. - Market Situation: Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the LME tin inventory decreased by 115 tons [14]. - Market Situation: Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 90, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis increased by 60 [17]. - Market Situation: Production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From July 9 - 15, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 250, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1 [19]. - Market Situation: Futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19].