原油成品油早报-20250716

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from July 9 - 15, 2025 - WTI decreased by $0.46 to $66.52 [3] - BRENT decreased by $0.50 to $68.71 [3] - DUBAI decreased by $0.06 to $70.00 [3] - SC decreased by 9.30 to 518.20 [3] - OMAN decreased by $1.25 to $68.53 [3] - Domestic gasoline increased by 10 to 7990 [3] Other Price - Related Changes - BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by 0.05 to 0.93 [3] - WTI - BRENT increased by 0.04 to - 2.19 [3] - DUBAI - BRT decreased by 0.47 to 1.65 [3] - SC - BRT decreased by 0.81 to 3.77 [3] - SC - WTI decreased by 0.85 to 5.96 [3] - Domestic gasoline - BRT increased by 40 to 3898 [3] Group 3: News and Forecasts News - Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $5 to $66/barrel and WTI to $63/barrel, predicting a drop to $56 and $52/barrel respectively in 2026 [3] - US API crude inventory for the week ending July 11 was 83.9 million barrels, against an expected - 163.7 million barrels [4] - Trump pressured Russia to cease fire, and secondary sanctions would target buyers of Russian oil [4] - Egypt postponed some LNG imports due to a new terminal not being operational [4] - Iran may face severe sanctions if no agreement is reached by end - August [4] - US President Trump won't set up tariff exemptions for the energy industry [4] Regional Fundamentals - US crude exports in the week of July 4 increased by 452,000 barrels/day to 2.757 million barrels/day [4] - US domestic crude production in the week of July 4 decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels/day [4] - US commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (1.69% increase) [4] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the week of July 4 increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (0.06% increase) [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending July 4 was - 2.658 million barrels, against an expected - 1.486 million barrels [4] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending July 4 was - 0.825 million barrels, against an expected - 0.314 million barrels [4] - In China, refinery operating rates had mixed changes, with production and sales of gasoline and diesel showing different trends, and inventories of gasoline and diesel increased this week [4] Group 4: Weekly Outlook - Crude oil prices oscillated this week, with the monthly spreads of the three major markets at high levels [5] - The US plans to impose new tariffs on some countries from August 1, and other trade partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [5] - OPEC+ is discussing pausing production increases from October, after restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September and waiting to consider restoring another 1.66 million barrels/day [5] - Global oil inventories increased this week, with significant increases in US crude and Cushing inventories, and decreases in gasoline and diesel inventories [5] - US oil rig count decreased by 1 in the week ending July 11, while the fracturing count rebounded [5] - Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened this week, with a sharp rise in the near - month spread of European diesel [5] - The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China are neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits [5] - In the peak refinery operation season, the monthly spreads of crude oil are expected to remain at high levels, with WTI and Brent stronger than Dubai. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's increased production and tariff policies [5]