花旗：美国财政流动性注⼊重启--股市已反映何种预期

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US debt ceiling has been raised from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion, with expectations that this limit will be reached within the next two years under current spending plans [2] - The US government has resumed borrowing, with over $388 billion borrowed since the debt ceiling increase [3] - Fiscal debt expansion for FY2025 is projected at $1.9 trillion, with a significant monthly debt increase observed in July [4][5] - The "fair value" for the S&P 500 index is estimated at 5526.5, with the upper and lower bounds at 6281.4 and 4771.5 respectively, indicating the market is currently above the upper bound [7] - By the end of September, fiscal debt is expected to rise to $37.4 trillion, adjusting the equity market's "fair value" to 5673.0 [11][12] - The probability of the market moving higher is currently low at 1.7%, increasing to 4.6% by September 2025, and reaching 46.1% only with a projected fiscal debt expansion of $3.2 trillion in FY2026 [15][16] - The fiscal debt indicator is above 70, suggesting the market is vulnerable to a selloff, as historical trends indicate a decline from this level [20][22] - Recent market exuberance is attributed to sentiment, with high correlations observed between SPX futures and the US Fear and Greed index [27][28] - The report suggests that the equity market is living on borrowed time and is susceptible to a catalyst for a potential unwind [29] - A limited upside scenario is proposed, recommending the use of risk reversals by buying puts and selling calls [32]