瑞银：中国需求-刺激措施即将出台？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the overall market, with a specific focus on iron ore, indicating potential upside if property support is provided in China [6]. Core Insights - China's GDP growth for the June quarter was reported at +5.2% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus of +5.1%, driven by front-loading of exports and earlier government bond issuance [1]. - Industrial production growth accelerated to 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus of 5.6%, while retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%, below the expected 5.3% [3]. - The property sector shows signs of weakness, with starts and sales down 20% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, leading to concerns about sentiment risk if significant stimulus is not implemented [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize within the US$90-100 per ton range, supported by potential property policy support, despite an increase in supply [2]. - The electric vehicle (EV) sector remains robust, with EV output growing by 21% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the automotive sector [5]. Summary by Sections Mining Strategy - The report highlights mixed economic indicators for China, with a focus on the property sector's impact on overall market sentiment [1]. Iron Ore - Following a decline in property signals, the China Urban Work Conference indicated a shift in urban development focus, which may affect iron ore demand [2]. - Iron ore prices could benefit from any incremental property support, despite a projected increase in supply [2]. Base Metals - Industrial production growth is strong, but retail sales are weaker than expected, suggesting that stimulus measures may need to be reevaluated [3]. Coal - The coal sector faces persistent oversupply, with production increasing by 3% year-on-year, leading to bearish fundamentals in the near term [4]. Battery Raw Materials - The EV market continues to show strength, with significant year-on-year growth in output, supported by favorable trade conditions [5]. UBS View - The report suggests a cautious approach to investments, with a focus on iron ore as a potential area for upside if property support is realized [6].