摩根士丹利：美国政策-财政政策冲刺终点线

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest overall fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the affected sectors [5][6][27]. Core Insights - The OBBBA is expected to provide significant cash flow benefits primarily through upfront R&D expensing and bonus depreciation, particularly benefiting sectors like technology, communication services, and healthcare [5][10][12]. - The fiscal impulse from the OBBBA is projected to add approximately 0.4 percentage points to real GDP in 2026, although this is not sufficient to offset drags from trade and immigration policies [27][45][57]. - The report identifies potential beneficiaries among companies with substantial R&D and capital expenditures, focusing on those with significant pre-tax earnings and meaningful cash taxes [5][24][25]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Implications - The OBBBA implies higher incremental deficits than previously anticipated, with a projected 2026 deficit of 7.1% of GDP, influenced by increased tariff revenues [6][12][59]. - The bill's provisions are expected to lead to front-loaded deficits and back-loaded surpluses, indicating a short-term fiscal impulse that may later turn into a fiscal drag [5][38][57]. Sectoral Impacts - Clean Tech: The final bill is viewed positively for most subsectors, alleviating investor concerns regarding the repeal of IRA tax credits [7]. - Consumer: Smaller cuts to SNAP in the final bill reduce headwinds for packaged foods, beverages, retail, and restaurants [7]. - Software: The reinstatement of upfront R&D expensing is likely to provide a cash flow tailwind for large-cap corporates [7][10]. Tax Provisions - Upfront R&D expensing allows companies to accelerate cash tax savings, particularly benefiting sectors like tech and healthcare [10][12]. - The reinstatement of 100% first-year bonus depreciation for qualified property and equipment is expected to positively impact capital-intensive sectors such as aerospace and defense, telecom, and energy [10][12]. Cash Flow and Earnings - The report emphasizes that the majority of OBBBA policies will impact cash flows rather than reported earnings, with significant cash tax savings anticipated in the near term [8][10][12]. - The cash tax rate is expected to potentially reach new lows due to the reinstated and expanded expensing provisions [9][12]. Deficit and Rates - The report notes that concerns regarding fiscal policy under the new administration have somewhat diminished, with the 10-year yield remaining below 4.50% [14][57]. - The OBBBA is projected to result in a lower fiscal deficit in 2025 compared to prior forecasts, while maintaining a broadly unchanged deficit forecast for 2026 [59][60].