摩根士丹利：石油市场实际上是供不应求，还是并非如此？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the oil market, suggesting that while a surplus is expected, prices are unlikely to fall below $60 per barrel [5][63]. Core Insights - The oil market is projected to return to a sizeable surplus after summer, with a surplus of 1.3-1.6 million barrels per day anticipated from Q4 2025 [3][22]. - Global oil inventories increased by approximately 235 million barrels from January to June 2025, but most of this build occurred outside key pricing centers, which has kept Brent prices relatively stable [11][13]. - Non-OECD countries, particularly China, have significantly increased their oil reserves, which may indicate a shift in oil's role as a store of value compared to gold [2][49]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to experience a surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, increasing to over 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [22][38]. - Non-OECD production is growing robustly, with estimates of non-OECD total oil liquids supply reaching 1.2 million barrels per day, outpacing global demand growth [25][26]. Price Forecasts - Brent price forecasts remain unchanged, with expectations of $67.5 in Q3 2025 and $60 in subsequent quarters [7]. - The report suggests that the Brent curve will need to shift into a contango structure to support storage economics, which could provide price support around $60 per barrel [5][63]. Inventory Trends - Commercial OECD stocks are expected to build by no more than 165 million barrels over the next 12 months, returning to levels seen in 2017 [4][51]. - The geographical distribution of inventory builds has been uneven, with significant increases in non-OECD countries and oil on the water, which do not correlate strongly with spot prices [18][19]. Market Structure - The current structure of the Brent futures curve indicates market tightness, despite the overall surplus, as inventories in key pricing centers remain low [12][17]. - The report highlights that the forward curve's structure will be crucial in determining how much of the surplus will be absorbed by inventories [63].