Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, with the implementation date possibly from late July to August 1st. COMEX copper rose 16% due to this news. However, the US has filled its annual rigid import gap for electrolytic copper, so the CL spread doesn't need to fully price in the 50% tariff in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether some countries get exemptions. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The supply and demand are balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to the demand situation and consider far - month inter - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation for zinc, hold inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - Nickel supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports was abolished, concerns about ore - end disturbances eased. Continue to focus on the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink [6] - Stainless steel supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10] - Lead prices slightly declined this week. Supply and demand are both weak in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price stays above 17,200 due to macro - factors [12] - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance. Demand is weak, and the LME inventory is at a low level but a turning point for inventory accumulation is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng. The market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate doesn't recover significantly, the industrial silicon futures are expected to oscillate [18] - Carbonate lithium futures prices rebounded from a low level. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A significant downward trend requires a large - scale accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot inventory [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by - 50, the premium/discount changed by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons [1] - Market Impact of Tariff: The US has filled its annual rigid import gap for copper. The 50% tariff may not need to be fully priced in the CL spread in the short term. South American countries' copper exports may be affected, and the high - premium in Southeast Asia and Europe may decline. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,550 tons [1] - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are balanced [1] Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 100, and the LME inventory increased by 2,750 tons [2] - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons [2] Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,500, and the LME inventory increased by 708 tons [6] - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly [6] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged [10] - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [10] Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the lead price slightly declined, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,850 tons [12] - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply and demand are both weak in July, and it is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week [12] Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the tin price fluctuated widely, and the LME inventory increased by 55 tons [14] - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance, and demand is weak [14] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by 100, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 43 [18] - Supply - Demand Situation: Production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng, and the market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [18] Carbonate Lithium - Price and Inventory Data: From July 10 - 16, the SMM electric carbonate price increased by 50, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 548 [20] - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [20]
永安期货有色早报-20250717
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-17 01:12