建信期货生猪日报-20250717

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On July 16, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fell sharply, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,010 yuan/ton, down 1.89% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,073 lots to 165,134 lots [7]. Spot Market - On July 16, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 14.43 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly widened, and the utilization rate of pig pens increased, indicating that the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment had increased. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses remained low. On July 16, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 132,600 heads, a decrease of 11,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 5,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - Supply side: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. The slaughter volume might be slightly adjusted down. In the early ten days, enterprises had staged pressure on slaughter and reduced volume, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. Currently, the slaughter progress had recovered, and there were still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [8]. - Overall: Currently, the slaughter volume of large-scale farms has recovered, and prices have continued to decline. In the middle and late July, large-scale breeding enterprises may intensify their supply to meet their monthly slaughter targets. Meanwhile, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may face pressure. In the futures market, all current futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot market. After the continuous recovery of large-scale farm slaughter, prices will decline along with the spot market. In the long term, the supply of live pigs will continue to increase, but the domestic anti-involution initiative and strengthened regional environmental protection policies are favorable for long-term pig price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self-breeding and self-raising pig was 165 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per purchased piglet was -44 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 58 yuan/head [9][11]. Group 4: Data Overview - In the week of July 10, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [19]. - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 53.9%, a ten-day-on-ten-day increase of 9 percentage points [19]. - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [19]. - As of the week ending July 11, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [19].