建信期货原油日报-20250717

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental drivers. OPEC+ production increase slightly exceeds expectations, but the actual increment is limited. The demand side still has support, and combined with geopolitical changes, oil prices are expected to rise in the 3rd quarter. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: WTI's opening price was 65.67 dollars/barrel, closing at 65.56 dollars/barrel, with a high of 66.06 dollars/barrel, a low of 65.18 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.38%, and a trading volume of 21.80 million lots. Brent's opening price was 69.15 dollars/barrel, closing at 68.86 dollars/barrel, with a high of 69.41 dollars/barrel, a low of 68.60 dollars/barrel, a decline of 0.51%, and a trading volume of 31.49 million lots. SC's opening price was 520.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 517.4 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.9 yuan/barrel, a low of 514.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.92%, and a trading volume of 8.67 million lots [6] - News: OPEC monthly report data shows that member countries' production in June was 220,000 barrels per day, and demand growth rate remains unchanged. OPEC+ decided to further expand the production increase from August, from the previous 410,000 barrels per day to 550,000 barrels per day. In the first month of OPEC's expanded production increase, the production of 8 member countries only increased by 150,000 barrels per day month-on-month. Although the three major institutions have raised their demand expectations for the second half of the year, due to the supply growth potential of countries such as Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet is limited, and the inventory pressure in the 4th quarter will be greater than that in the 3rd quarter [6][7] - Operation Suggestions: It is expected that oil prices will still have the potential to rise in the 3rd quarter, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [7] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to withdraw from the International Energy Agency [8] - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US is considering innovative trading plans to replenish oil reserves [8] - Two sources revealed that Europe plans to contact Iran in the next few days and weeks, stating that if Iran takes measures to reassure the world about its nuclear program, it can avoid the automatic resumption of sanctions [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, etc., but does not list specific data values [10][12][18]