建信期货国债日报-20250717

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The economic data released this week basically met expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual target remains challenging if exports decline significantly [11]. - The economic data shows that external demand drives strong production, while domestic demand, including consumption and real estate, is weak and needs further consolidation [11]. - Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period. Monetary easing may pick up in October after the economic recovery in the third quarter becomes clear, tariff negotiations conclude, and the Fed cuts interest rates [11][12]. - The bond market is currently constrained by funds. The money market rate has bottomed out and is facing upward pressure during the July tax - payment month, and the short - term rate restricts the decline of the long - term rate [12]. Market Conditions Bond Futures - On July 16, most Treasury bond futures contracts declined slightly. For example, TL2509 fell 0.060 with a decline of 0.05%, and T2509 fell 0.050 with a decline of 0.05% [6]. Interest - rate Bonds - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase, with a change of less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.4bp to 1.6590% [9]. Money Market - The central bank actively offset the tax - period disturbances, and the money market remained stable. There were 755 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations [10]. - The inter - bank money market sentiment index slightly rebounded, and short - term money market rates declined. The overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits fell 6.1bp to 1.47%, and the 7 - day rate fell 4.1bp to around 1.53%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable and loose, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained stable around 1.62 - 1.63% [10]. Industry News - Wang Huning emphasized the importance of comprehensively expanding domestic demand at a symposium, and relevant research results need to be deepened and applied [13]. - The "old - for - new" housing policy has been implemented in multiple cities, which is expected to boost the real estate market [13]. - Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting from August 1, which may escalate trans - Atlantic trade conflicts [14]. - The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into Brazil's unfair trade practices [14]. - Fed's Logan said that the Fed needs to maintain high interest rates for a longer time to control inflation, and tariff hikes may cause additional inflationary pressure [14]. Data Overview - The report presents data on Treasury bond futures, including contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests. It also includes information on money market rates and derivatives market curves such as SHIBOR, inter - bank repurchase rates, and interest - rate swap curves [6][29][35]