建信期货集运指数日报-20250717

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points. The quotes of major airlines remained stable, possibly supported by good cargo demand. For the 08 contract, there is still some room for repair as it is at a discount to the spot index. For October, which is a traditional off - season, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's quotes in the second half of July were slightly higher than in the first half, and the quotes of other airlines converged to $3300 - 3500. For August, only a few airlines have reported fares, and attention should be paid to whether other airlines will follow the price increase. The 08 contract has room for repair, and for October, focus on short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [8] 2. Industry News - From July 7 to July 11, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with freight rates fluctuating due to different supply - demand fundamentals. The European economic recovery was relatively stable, but the outcome of the EU - US tariff negotiation was uncertain. The freight rates in the European route were stable, while those in the Mediterranean route declined slightly, and those in the North American route rebounded after adjustment. The US - EU trade negotiation was ongoing, with automobile and agricultural product tariffs as key issues, and the negotiation result was subject to Trump's decision. Trump also planned to impose unified tariffs on most trading partners, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen restricted ships related to Israel from passing through relevant sea areas [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) increased from 2258.04 on July 7 to 2421.94 on July 14, a rise of 7.3%. SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) decreased from 1557.77 on July 7 to 1266.59 on July 14, a decline of 18.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts on July 16 were presented, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., with details of opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]