建信期货股指日评-20250717

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not significant. It is expected that the Politburo meeting at the end of July will mainly continue past policies rather than introduce unexpected ones [7]. - The export in the second half of the year still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand and infrastructure investment remain important drivers of the economy. A-share trading volume hovers around 1.5 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index needs further breakthrough in trading volume to firmly stand above 3,500 points [7]. - It is recommended to maintain a medium to low position in long contracts and add positions after a pullback. In terms of market style, the Shanghai 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform better, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On July 16, the Wind All A index opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing up 0.06%, with over 60% of stocks rising. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed down 0.30%, 0.23%, and 0.03% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed up 0.30%. Index futures outperformed the spot, with IF and IH main contracts closing down 0.24% and 0.14%, and IC and IM main contracts closing up 0.03% and 0.33% respectively [6]. 1.2 Outlook - In the external market, the impact of US tariffs on inflation has emerged. The unadjusted CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the previous value of 2.8%, which affected the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Domestically, the economic data in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the Politburo meeting at the end of July will mainly continue past policies [7]. - In the first half of the year, domestic demand was steadily restored, exports were resilient, and industrial production grew rapidly. In the second half of the year, exports still face uncertainties, and domestic demand and infrastructure investment are important drivers of the economy. A-share trading volume hovers around 1.5 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index needs further breakthrough in trading volume to firmly stand above 3,500 points [7]. - It is recommended to maintain a medium to low position in long contracts and add positions after a pullback. In terms of market style, the Shanghai 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform better, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [7]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the performance of domestic main indexes, market style, industry sector performance, trading volume of Wind All A and index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics on the share and trading volume of major ETF funds [8][13][17][20] 3. Industry News - On July 16, a symposium on the all - rounded expansion of domestic demand was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promoting high - quality development [30]