建信期货铝日报-20250717

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum Price Movement: On the 16th, SHFE aluminum prices slightly increased. The main contract 2508 rose 0.42% to 20,475. The total index open interest decreased by 7,771 to 628,056 lots, and the 08 - 09 spread was 40 [8]. - Market Transaction: After the price decline, market trading improved, but due to the off - season, substantial improvement in downstream purchases was difficult. The premium and discount fluctuated, with a premium of 90 in East China, a discount of - 50 in Central China, and a premium of 80 in South China [8]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly with SHFE aluminum. The 2511 contract closed up 0.23% at 19,820, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 475. In the off - season of the automotive industry, with weak demand and raw material shortages, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate, maintaining a low - level negative spread [8]. - Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high but decreased slightly due to capacity replacement. Downstream开工率 was weak due to the off - season, high aluminum prices, and high temperatures. Inventory increased at the beginning of the week, and although there was destocking recently, it is expected to accumulate further. High - level short - selling hedging is recommended [8]. Group 3: Industry News - China's June Aluminum Production: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Production decreased slightly month - on - month due to the start of the second - phase electrolytic aluminum replacement from Shandong to Yunnan [9]. - July Operating Capacity: In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high. The second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the industry开工率 rebounded [9]. - Real Estate Policy: The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market, and local governments should use policy autonomy to implement targeted measures [10]. - US Aluminum Company: Alcoa's San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain is expected to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million due to a power outage. The restart was postponed but has now resumed [10]