建信期货铁矿石日评-20250717

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On July 16, the iron ore futures main contract 2509 fluctuated upward, reaching a new high since February 28. The market sentiment was boosted by factors such as the easing of trade risks and the expectation of new urbanization investment. However, fundamentally, iron ore is still in a state of increasing supply and decreasing demand. In the short term, the iron ore price will maintain a relatively strong trend, but there is a risk of price decline in the mid - to - late third quarter if policies do not meet expectations [7][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On July 16, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by $0.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a differentiated trend, and the MACD red column narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - External market: The US said it would meet with China, easing trade risks. Domestic market: The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and many securities firms released research reports on "anti - involution", reversing the sentiment of oversupplied varieties. The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on new urbanization investment also boosted market sentiment. Fundamentally, iron ore supply is strong and demand is weak. Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased regularly after the peak, and arrivals increased. Iron ore supply will remain loose until mid - July and then gradually tighten. Demand, including hot metal and steel production, is on a downward trend, but due to the good profitability of steel enterprises, the production cut process will be slow, which will support the ore price [10][11] 2. Industry News - In early July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous ten - day period. The average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased by 1.5%, 1.1%, and 11.9% respectively compared with the previous period [12] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including iron ore prices at Qingdao Port, price differences between different ore grades, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, and various indicators related to steel production and consumption [17][21][37]