建信期货镍日报-20250717

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The current performance of each link in the nickel industry chain continues to weaken, and the market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current rebound is only temporary, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low levels [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 16th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the 120,000 integer mark. The main contract 2508 closed up 0.91% at 120,550. The total open interest of the index decreased by 12,098 to 151,318 lots [9]. - In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, with enterprises purchasing on demand. The spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. - The support of the ore end in the front - end of the industrial chain is weakening. The premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has started to decline, and there is a further downward risk for the ore price in the future [9]. - The overall bargaining range of ferronickel has moved down, ferronickel plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about dragging down the external demand of the stainless - steel end. It is the traditional consumption off - season with high inventory, and the high temperature in summer further weakens the demand of some downstream industries [9]. - On the 16th, the price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,220 yuan. The demand for energy batteries is in the off - season with limited support, and it is expected to remain weak [9]. 2. Industry News - On July 8, the Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2025 was only 120 million tons, while the approved quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons. The main reason for the insufficient production was the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [10]. - Since January 2025, the cost pressure of the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio from B40 to B50, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel (Ni) contact and almost no silver (Ag), which significantly reduces the silver usage while maintaining high efficiency [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its energy goals [11].