大越期货沪铜早报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a slight premium for spot over futures, and inventory data presents a mixed picture. The price is affected by factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a decline and adjustment in copper prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, showing stable manufacturing sentiment; neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 78040, with a basis of 60, indicating a premium for spot over futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: On July 16, copper inventory increased by 10525 tons to 121000 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3127 tons to 81462 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices will decline and adjust [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Leverage Factors: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned, but specific impacts are not detailed [3]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: Information on LME and SHFE inventories is presented, including inventory quantity and changes [6][12]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight - balance state. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [20][22].