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大越期货尿素早报-20250717
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-17 02:34
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has a significant oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations [4]. - The main logic of the market is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, with the main risk point being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Recently, the urea futures market has been volatile. International geopolitical fluctuations have led to a tight supply of urea, and the Indian tender price is expected to rise further, making international urea prices strong. Domestically, the operating rate has declined but remains high, and overall inventory is still high. In terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has been continuously declining, and the operating rate of melamine has also decreased. Agricultural demand is expected to weaken again. The domestic urea market still has a significant oversupply, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable is 1830 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 979, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Likely Factors: International prices are strong [5]. - Negative Factors: High daily production from high - level operations and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the deliverable is 1830 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1830 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1830 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2582 [6]. | | Futures Market | UR09 contract price is 1733 (+2), UR01 is 1710 (+3), UR05 is 1727 (+4), and the basis of the UR09 contract is 97 (-2) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 2630 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.24 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.035 million tons, and UR port inventory is 205,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing. For example, in 2018, it was 2245.5, and in 2025E, it is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% compared to 2024. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes over the years [10].