大越期货原油早报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump said he would not consider firing the Fed Chairman for the time being, easing market concerns, boosting risk appetite, and causing oil prices to rebound. Meanwhile, the decline in EIA crude oil inventories also supported oil prices. However, the accumulation of gasoline and refined oil in the downstream and the decline in gasoline production have worried the market about the lack of optimism in summer peak demand, limiting the upside of oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term trading is expected to be in the range of 513 - 523, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Trump said he doesn't plan to fire the Fed Chairman, EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail, and gasoline demand decline during the summer driving season is disappointing. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: On July 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.22 per barrel, and the basis was 8.60 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, a neutral situation [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory increased by 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 163.7 barrels; EIA inventory decreased by 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 55.2 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 21.3 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 451.7 barrels. The overall situation is bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is near the moving average, a bearish signal [3]. - Main Position: As of July 8, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.50, - 0.46, - 0.80, and - 2.24 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.72%, - 0.69%, - 0.15%, and - 3.09% [7]. - Spot Quotes: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by - 0.54, - 0.46, - 1.87, - 1.89, and - 2.28 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.75%, - 0.69%, - 2.59%, - 2.73%, and - 3.15% [9]. 2. Recent News - Trump's potential replacement of the Fed Chairman caused market fluctuations, but he later said there was no current plan. Market participants have different views on this event. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail. Trump also mentioned possible tariff rates for Japan and a potential trade agreement with India [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Bearish Factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - API Inventory Trend: From May 2 to July 11, API inventory showed fluctuations, with an increase of 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [10]. - EIA Inventory Trend: From May 9 to July 11, EIA inventory also fluctuated, with a decrease of 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [14]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 25,319 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [16]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds also fluctuated, with an increase of 55,630 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [19].