Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The downstream glass market's recovery boosts the sentiment of the soda ash market, but the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1208 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1195 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 13 yuan, with a decline of - 0.49%, - 0.42%, and - 7.14% respectively compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China joint - soda process is - 113.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity of 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned new production capacity of 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.84 tons, and the operating rate is 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide is 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].
大越期货纯碱早报-20250717
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-17 02:34