大越期货白糖早报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market shows a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate around 5800, and the spot price is likely to decline due to the approaching clearance of domestic sugar stocks and increased imports in July [6][10]. - The global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus in the 25/26 season, but there are differences in institutional forecasts [37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, and USDA expects a 4.7% increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, resulting in a 1.1397 - billion - ton surplus. As of the end of May 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69%. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons, and imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. This is a bearish factor [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6120, and the basis for the 09 contract is 312, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [7]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 3.0483 million tons, which is a bullish factor [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [7]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is unclear, which is a bearish factor [7]. - Leverage: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and short - term low out - of - quota imports. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, the international sugar price falling below 17 cents per pound, and an open import profit window [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance in 25/26: The global production is 202 million tons, consumption is 198 million tons, with a surplus of 2.7 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 52% - 54%, and the global trade volume is 62 million tons [37]. - Institutional Forecasts in the Past 3 Months: USDA predicts a surplus of 1.1397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), Datagro predicts a surplus of 258,000 tons, ISO predicts a possible surplus in the 25/26 season after a shortage in the 24/25 season, and StoneX predicts a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 430,000 tons [40]. - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance: In the 25/26 season, the sugar - cane planting area is 1.23 million hectares, beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [42]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.