大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. Core Views - For PTA, with few planned maintenance in July and the scheduled commissioning of Sanfangxiang's plant, while facing the off - season of terminal demand, weak polyester sales, accumulated inventory pressure, and rumors of production cuts, the supply - demand outlook is pessimistic. The spot basis is weak, and in the short - term, PTA price will follow cost fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new PTA plants and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - For MEG, in the short - term, prices will experience wide - range adjustments. Issues with the restart of some Saudi Arabian plants have boosted market sentiment. In the long - term, the available spot in the MEG market will continue to be abundant. There are clear expectations of inventory accumulation in August - September, about 18 - 20 tons. As the inventory pressure of polyester products increases, the intention of factories to purchase raw materials will weaken [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - No specific content provided in the document. 2. Daily Tips - PTA: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere, and the negotiation range of the spot basis widened. The mainstream suppliers had negotiated transactions. The basis of this week and next week's goods was 09 + 815, with the price negotiation range around 47054730. The basis of mid - and early - August goods was 09 + 5~10. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 11. The spot price is 4718, the 09 - contract basis is 12, and the futures price is at a discount. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.09 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and rebounded. The market negotiation was active. The night - session price opened lower and then fell. The low - level spot was traded at around 4365 - 4370 yuan/ton. Affected by positive news about plants and the delay of Middle - East cargo shipments, the futures price rebounded from the low level. The high - level spot was traded at over 4430 yuan/ton. The foreign - exchange price of ethylene glycol also fluctuated and rebounded. The recent shipments were mainly negotiated at around 513 - 517 US dollars/ton, and there was a transaction of Taiwan tender goods at around 518 US dollars/ton, with a volume of 3000 tons. The spot price is 4385, the 09 - contract basis is 34, and the futures price is at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region is 48.03 tons, a decrease of 5.17 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [8][9]. 3. Today's Focus - PTA: The commissioning progress of new PTA plants and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: Cost factors and news - related impacts [8]. 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, new capacity, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, operating rate, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. 5. Price - It presents various price - related data and charts, including bottle - chip spot price, bottle - chip production profit, bottle - chip capacity utilization rate, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, and others, from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22][23]. 6. Inventory Analysis - It provides inventory - related data and charts, such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory from 2021 - 2025 [41][42][44]. 7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Upstream: It shows the operating rates of purified terephthalic acid, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 - 2025 [52][53][55]. - Downstream: It shows the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [56][57][59]. 8. Processing Fees and Profits - PTA: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 - 2025 [60][61]. - MEG: It shows the production profits of different ethylene - glycol production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 - 2025 [63][64]. - Polyester Fibers: It shows the production profits of polyester short - fibers, polyester long - fibers (DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [66][68][69].