大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of competition, and tariff policies also having an impact. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will show a volatile trend today [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7190 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and ongoing production pressure, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity launch and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC increased production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 167, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.4%, considered bullish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7]. - Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].