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沪锌期货早报:2025年7月17日-20250717
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-17 02:36

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining, and the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing while the short - side strength is increasing. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to expect a volatile consolidation [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,070, and the basis was +40, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On July 16, the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,750 tons to 121,350 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 977 tons to 12,161 tons, which is a negative factor [2]. 4. Market Quotes 4.1 Futures Exchange Quotes on July 16 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, the contract 2508 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,045, a decrease of 60; the contract 2509 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,030, a decrease of 75 [3]. 4.2 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on July 16 - The price of zinc concentrate was 16,800 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc ingot was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,949 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,289 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of zinc powder was 26,790 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc oxide was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4.3 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 3 - July 14, 2025) - The total inventory in major domestic markets increased from 63,900 tons on July 3 to 74,200 tons on July 14. Compared with July 7, it increased by 4,200 tons; compared with July 10, it increased by 1,500 tons [5]. 4.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on July 16 - The total zinc warrants in Shanghai were 25 tons (unchanged); in Guangdong, 3,607 tons (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 0 tons (unchanged); in Zhejiang, 0 tons (unchanged); in Tianjin, 8,529 tons (an increase of 977 tons), with a total of 12,161 tons (an increase of 977 tons) [6]. 4.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 16 - The total LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 97,375 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 23,975 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 19.76% [8]. 4.6 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on July 16 - Zinc concentrate prices in most regions were around 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 80 yuan/ton [9]. 4.7 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on July 16 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, such as Hunan Zhizhixing with a price of 22,410 yuan/ton, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry with 25,350 yuan/ton, etc. [13]. 4.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 4.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on July 16 - The processing fees for domestic 50% grade zinc concentrate were mainly in the range of 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 50 - 70 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 4.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on July 16 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2509 contract, the top three were Guotai Junan (22,277 lots, an increase of 658), CITIC Futures (18,260 lots, a decrease of 1,345), and Huatai Futures (13,749 lots, a decrease of 287). In the long - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (20,394 lots, a decrease of 831), Qiankun Futures (7,436 lots, a decrease of 889), and Guotai Junan (7,280 lots, a decrease of 376). In the short - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (11,003 lots, an increase of 291), Guotai Junan (9,558 lots, an increase of 1,347), and Zhongtai Futures (4,612 lots, an increase of 110) [18].