大越期货甲醇早报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the methanol industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the port methanol market has a mix of long and short factors. With the intensification of the Red Sea situation, there is some macro - level support. However, as overseas plants resume operation, the fundamentals may gradually return to a supply - demand pattern with a slight surplus. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to news from olefin enterprises. - In the inland market, under the background of weak supply and demand, the adjustment space for methanol prices is expected to be limited this week. The focus remains on whether olefin plants will make external purchases. - Overall, it is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2350 - 2410 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The port market has mixed factors. The inland market has a supply - demand imbalance, with weak demand due to high - temperature seasons and poor downstream profitability, but supply is also supported by factors such as increased raw material gaps in CTO plants and concentrated shutdowns of production facilities. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 53, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. - Expectation: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract trading between 2350 - 2410 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Long Factors: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the operating rate of Iranian methanol plants has decreased; the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to start production this month; the raw material methanol gap in major CTO plants in the Northwest has widened [6]. - Short Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in various regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.33% week - on - week, while in Hebei, it increased by 0.69%. The futures closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton. - Basis and Spread: The basis in Jiangsu is 53, and there are various spread changes, such as the import spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports increased by 8.35 tons to 42.62 tons, while in South China ports, it decreased by 1.56 tons to 14.14 tons. - Production Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased slightly, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 334 yuan/ton to 522 yuan/ton [8][9][21]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many plants in different regions are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant. - Overseas Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming operation, while others are operating stably. Plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [56][57].