大越期货生猪期货早报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is suppressed in the short - term due to the end of the holiday and the pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly mid - group farm's slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, and the inventory shows a certain decline in live pigs and a slight increase in breeding sows. The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to a range - bound pattern between 13,800 and 14,200 for the LH2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt No specific content provided for daily prompt in the report. 3.2 Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of live pigs both decrease, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures price following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork turns weak in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the live pig spot price fluctuates weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic live pig breeding profit remains at a low level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The live pig spot price may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the live pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on the live pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Inventory: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - Price: The national average spot price was 14,470 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was 460 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [8]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, with a reduction in short positions [8].