大越期货菜粕早报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2640 - 2700. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it will maintain range - bound oscillations [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. - The slightly reduced annual production of Canadian rapeseed supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduced production of Ukrainian rapeseed and the increased production of Russian rapeseed offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish - China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. - The inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not significant [12]. Bearish - Domestic rapeseed was listed in June. - The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - peak [13]. Current Main Logic - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Volume Data: From July 7th to July 16th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated around 2880 - 2900 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 6.51 - 18.51 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small, mostly below 0.2 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 336 - 384 yuan/ton [14]. - Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price: From July 8th to July 16th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509) increased from 2576 to 2653 yuan/ton, and the price of the far - month contract 2601 fluctuated around 2300 - 2320 yuan/ton. The spot price in Fujian increased from 2500 to 2560 yuan/ton [16]. - Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipts: From July 4th to July 16th, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 16232 to 8911, showing a continuous downward trend [17]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal has rebounded in an oscillatory manner, affected by soybean meal trends and technical oscillations. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant, and the market will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the impact may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2560 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 93, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% compared to last week's 1.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67% compared to 3 million tons in the same period last year, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Market Trends: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Main Position: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Expectations: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices have risen and then fallen due to the low - level inventory of imported rapeseed and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillations in the short term [9].