大越期货PVC期货早报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Likely positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [11]. - Likely negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12]. - Expected performance: PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4899 - 4969 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [11]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Fundamentals - Supply side: In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a 1.40% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 338,190 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 114,390 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly to 34.55%, a 0.20 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average [6]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operating rate was 41.11%, a 1.77 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate, pipe operating rate, and paste resin operating rate all decreased to varying degrees, while the film operating rate remained flat [6][9]. - Cost side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a 19.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,610.35 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% month - on - month profit reduction, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - Comprehensive judgment: The fundamentals are neutral [6]. 3.2.2 Basis On July 16, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Factory inventory was 381,590 tons, a 1.21% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 296,790 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method factory inventory was 84,800 tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% month - on - month increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.18 days, a 0.32% month - on - month decrease. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.4 Disk MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [8]. 3.2.5 Main Position The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's market overview: The report provides data on various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, regional prices, downstream operating rates, and costs, showing different degrees of price changes and operating rate fluctuations [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis trend: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price [17][18]. - Futures price and trading volume: The report shows the trend chart of the PVC futures main contract price and trading volume, including information such as opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages [20][21]. - Spread analysis: The report presents the spread analysis chart of the PVC futures main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - Lancoke: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of Lancoke [26][27]. - Calcium carbide: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and maintenance loss trends of calcium carbide [29][30]. - Liquid chlorine and raw salt: The report shows the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [31][32]. - Caustic soda: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and consumption trends of caustic soda [34][35][37][38]. - Chlor - alkali: The report shows the cost - profit, caustic soda apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of chlor - alkali [37][38]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trends - Capacity utilization rate: The report shows the trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, as well as the profit trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method [39][40][42]. - Production and maintenance volume: The report shows the trends of PVC daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises [42]. 3.5.3 Demand Trends - Trading volume and pre - sales volume: The report shows the trends of PVC daily trading volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate [44][45][47]. - Downstream operating rates: The report shows the operating rate trends of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin [49]. - Paste resin: The report shows the profit, cost, production, and apparent consumption trends of paste resin [51]. - Real estate and infrastructure: The report shows the trends of real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [54][55][58]. 3.5.4 Inventory The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [59][60]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method The report shows the trends of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread [61][62]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports [64][65].