Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as domestic asphalt planned production in July 2025 is 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The sample capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, which may further increase supply pressure next week [7]. - Demand is lower than the historical average. The opening rates of various types of asphalt and related products are mostly below the historical average, with some showing a decline or little change [7]. - The cost support is weakening in the short term. The daily asphalt processing profit has decreased by 11.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit has decreased by 24.69% month - on - month. Crude oil prices are weakening [8]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3598 - 3648 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views - Supply: The planned production in July 2025 is 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The sample capacity utilization rate is 33.9166%, a month - on - month increase of 0.779 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 566,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 582,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. Refineries have increased production, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The opening rates of various types of asphalt and related products are mostly below the historical average. For example, the heavy - traffic asphalt opening rate is 32.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt opening rate is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt opening rate is 14.383%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt opening rate is 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point; and the waterproofing membrane opening rate is 30%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 460.93 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 838.2543 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.69%. Crude oil prices are weakening, and short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation: The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating in the range of 3598 - 3648 [9]. - Other Factors: There are positive factors such as relatively high crude oil cost providing some support, and negative factors such as insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13] 2. Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Price and Spread Analysis: It includes the analysis of the price trends of different contracts (such as 01 - 12 contracts), the basis trends of Shandong and East China regions, the spread trends between main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil (Brent, WTI), the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [17][20][25] - Inventory Analysis: Social inventory is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%; factory inventory is 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%; and port diluted asphalt inventory is 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.75%. Social inventory is decreasing, while factory and port inventories are increasing [10] 3. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: Analyzes the profit trends of asphalt and the spread between coking and asphalt profits [39][42] - Supply - side Analysis: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, port diluted asphalt inventory, production volume (weekly and monthly), Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, opening rate, and estimated maintenance loss [45][47][50] - Inventory Analysis: Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio of factory inventory [65][69][72] - Import and Export Analysis: Analyzes the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread of Korean asphalt [75][78][80] - Demand - side Analysis: Considers factors such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt opening rate (heavy - traffic, classified by use), and downstream opening conditions [81][84][87] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand from January 2024 to July 2025 [105]
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250717
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-17 02:40