瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - International corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth condition and high output prospects of US corn. In the domestic market, the auction of imported corn shows a downward trend in trading volume and premium, leading to a weakening price. Corn futures prices have been falling from high levels recently [2]. - Corn starch industry's supply pressure has decreased due to continuous production losses and low operating rates. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, resulting in a still loose supply - demand situation. Corn starch prices have declined recently following the fall of corn prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2296 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 56 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 18280 hands, up 2330 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 184971 hands, down 450 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 350 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2646 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 48 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14647 hands, down 571 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 13094 hands, down 2700 hands [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 424.5 cents/bushel, up 5.25 cents; the total position is 1498964 contracts, up 297 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 141762 contracts, up 13764 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.12 yuan/ton, up 0.2 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1901.84 yuan/ton, down 0.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.12 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 34 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2441.33 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 139 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecast: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons [2]. - Corn sowing area forecast: The predicted sowing area in the US is 35.37 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares; in China is 44.3 million hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; at northern ports is 353 tons, down 17 tons; the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is 443.6 tons, up 8.2 tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, up 0.9 tons [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 19 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, up 4.06 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 115.78 tons, down 1.85 tons [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 138 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; in Hebei is - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 72 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, up 0.15% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.09%, down 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.95%, down 0.08% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.5%, up 0.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.5%, up 0.1% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn from July 1 - 10, 2025 to be between 900,000 and 2.1 million tons [2]. - As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]