瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, is still in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, with a slightly decreased implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,840 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,599.50 dollars/ton, down 35.50 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 153,791 hands, down 6,666 hands. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 4,039 hands, up 4,268 hands. The LME copper inventory was 121,000 tons, up 10,525 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,325 tons, down 300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 42,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,020 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,035 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 51 dollars/ton, down 2.50 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 180 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.79 dollars/kiloton, up 0.46 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,320 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,020 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 0.048 billion tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 54,790 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 0.1185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.96%, down 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.12%, down 0.17%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.15%, down 0.0065. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.62, up 0.0102 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting. The National Committee Chairman Wang Huning emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The US PPI in June was flat month - on - month. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [2]