工业硅产业日报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 381,048 lots, down 43 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, down 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,215 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon spread is - 10 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 455 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, up 7,624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - There are rumors that the restart plan of large factories has been cancelled. The operation of small and medium - sized enterprises in the northwest is stable, and in the southwest region, state - owned enterprises, self - supplied power enterprises, and organic silicon supply - guaranteeing enterprises are mainly operating. The US PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024. The US economy is slowing down in the short - term, and it is expected that China may gradually follow with interest rate cuts. Short - term observation of Fed policies is needed [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in Yili, Northwest China, remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the southwest region has decreased. Enterprises in Baoshan are actively restarting production, but the restart scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Factories in Sichuan are mainly focusing on ensuring supply and relying on self - supplied power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon sector, the spot price has increased, production profits have recovered, and enterprises are increasing production, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices are flat, and they are in a passive de - stocking phase, with little impetus for industrial silicon demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still slowing down [2].