瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250717

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a reference price range of 26.0 - 26.5. The macro - economic situation shows the US June PPI hitting a near - one - year low, and Trump's tariff plans and trade agreement announcements. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, Yunnan faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, after the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, some producers' operating rates have declined, and the electronics industry is in a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have dropped, but downstream procurement willingness is still low, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly while LME de - stocking has slowed and the premium has declined. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low level of holdings, and the price has broken below the MA60 support, increasing the downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,260 US dollars/ton, down 300 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract closing price for Shanghai tin is - 170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position volume for Shanghai tin is 22,969 lots, up 221 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures for Shanghai tin is 610 lots, up 261 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,980 tons, down 115 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 420 tons, down 150 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,777 tons, down 70 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 263,570 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 360 yuan/ton, down 1,720 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 115 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 171,130 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160,140 tons, up 14,450 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year growth was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month growth of 0%. Trump said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10% tariffs" on at least 100 countries and mentioned trade agreements. Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies for strengthening the domestic large - cycle and regulate the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3]. 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3].