瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of methanol shows a downward trend as some olefin plants resume and gradually consume the previously accumulated methanol inventory, but the methanol port inventory continues to increase due to smooth unloading of foreign vessels. The downstream demand remains weak, and the overall start - up rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The MA2509 contract is recommended to wait and see by paying attention to the support level around 2370 in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 653886 lots, down 196 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125584 lots, down 4127 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8786, down 145 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1972.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 407.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 275 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 238 euros/ton, down 3 euros; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 58 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.56 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.05 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 63.4 tons, up 6.35 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 15.62 tons, up 0.78 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 6.56 yuan/ton, up 14.55 yuan. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352300 tons, down 4600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.75%, down 3.43% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83%; the operating rate of acetic acid is 93.91%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged; the operating rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8%. The operating rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55%. The spot profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 899 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.83%, down 2.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.14%, down 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.14%, down 1.09% [2] Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons, a 1.28% decrease; the order backlog is 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons, a 9.89% increase. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons. As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 3.23 tons, down 0.05 tons, a 1.59% decrease [2] Viewpoint Summary - The overall inventory of methanol shows a downward trend, but the port inventory continues to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the start - up rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [2] Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]