苹果产业日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. It is recommended to take short - term long positions when the price is low and continue to monitor the production situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 7,835 yuan/ton, the main contract's open interest is 93,033 hands (a decrease of 3,811 hands), the number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,932 hands (a decrease of 1,674 hands) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (second - grade fruit from farmers, paper - bagged 80 and above) is 4 yuan/jin, the national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, the wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.66 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg) [2] Upstream Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 91.49 million tons (a decrease of 7.82 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.06, the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.13 (both decreased by 0.01), the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons (a decrease of 20,000 tons), the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 2,552.9 million dollars, and the monthly apple export value is 5,152.5 million dollars [2] Industry Situation - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin (an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.12 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.28 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 6.15 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.94 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg), the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11 vehicles, the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 19.4 vehicles (a decrease of 0.8 vehicles), and the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 7.8 vehicles (a decrease of 0.6 vehicles) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.32% (an increase of 0.03%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.36% (an increase of 0.06%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of apples is 14.95% (a decrease of 0.2%) [2] Industry News - On July 17, 2025, the apple trading in the production areas remained sluggish. The remaining goods in the western production areas were limited, and the sales speed was acceptable with stable prices. In the Shandong production area, the remaining farmer - owned apples were mainly large fruits with uneven quality, and the prices were negotiated. The self - stored goods of merchants were digested through their own channels with a slow sales speed. The apple 2510 contract closed down 0.11% on Thursday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (a 2.35% increase) compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Inventory Situation - As of July 16, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons from the previous week. The sales speed improved slightly compared to the previous week and was similar to the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 12.15% (a decrease of 1.06% from the previous week), and the de - stocking speed increased slightly. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 4.63% (a decrease of 1.09% from the previous week), and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week [2]