瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will likely hover at the bottom, and prices will continue to face pressure. With the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of the month, market sentiment will be the main driver. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract on dips [2]. - For glass, the supply has increased with two glass production lines resuming production, but it remains at a low level. The industry's profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production may increase. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. After the glass price drops, there will be policy rumors to support the bottom. It is recommended to buy put options on rallies and go long on futures on dips [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,225 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,092 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1,559,642 hands, down 39,415 hands; glass main contract position is 1,522,202 hands, down 4,105 hands. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 473,312, down 22,482; glass top 20 net position is - 392,954, up 24,900. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 2,815 tons, down 379 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 797 tons, unchanged. Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 46, up 6; glass September - January contract spread is - 92, up 5. Soda ash basis is - 8 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; glass basis is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shahe glass sheets are 1,088 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32% (weekly), unchanged; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68% (weekly), unchanged. Glass in - production capacity is 15.84 million tons/year (weekly), up 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 224 (weekly), up 2. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 188.4 million tons (weekly), up 2.06 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 67.102 million weight boxes (weekly), down 1.983 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - On July 16, the national power load hit a new high, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time. The State Council Executive Meeting plans to implement a special action to boost consumption and optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones. It also aims to standardize the competition order in the new - energy vehicle industry and urge key car - makers to fulfill payment - term commitments. NVIDIA has restarted the sales of H20 in China, and inquiries have surged. He Lifeng stated that China will promote mutual - benefit and win - win results in the global industrial and supply chains [2]. Macro - aspect - The market is mainly observing whether an important meeting will be held at the end of July and if there will be new statements. There are still short - term policy expectations. Some false rumors are spreading in the short - term market, and commodity sentiment is the dominant factor [2]. Soda Ash Analysis - Supply: Domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, production is flat, supply is still ample, and profits continue to decline. Future production is expected to decrease, and natural - soda production will gradually become the mainstream. Demand: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and both operating rate and profit have improved. Photovoltaic glass is generally flat. Inventory: Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. Glass Analysis - Supply: Two glass production lines have resumed production, overall output has increased but remains at a low level, with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and the industry profit has improved. Demand: The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders have decreased, and procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The increase in inventory of automotive glass factories cannot offset the weak demand related to real - estate, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].