芳烃橡胶早报-20250717

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - PTA: The near - term TA start - up has increased slightly, polyester load has declined further, inventory has continued to accumulate, the basis has declined, and spot processing fees have weakened significantly. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. There may be a reduction in supply at the margin as the spot processing fee is extremely low. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [2]. - MEG: The near - term domestic coal - to - MEG restart has led to an increase in the start - up rate. With Saudi Arabian plants restarting, port inventory will accumulate next week. As Iranian and ethane supplies have not decreased, it will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to changes in warehouse receipts [3]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - term supply has decreased due to the production cut of Ningbo Dafa. Production and sales have remained stable, and inventory has basically remained unchanged. Demand from the polyester yarn end has continued to decline, with raw material inventory decreasing and finished product inventory increasing. Processing fees are expected to be range - bound as supply has neither decreased significantly nor increased [3]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: The national explicit inventory has remained stable at a relatively low level but has not decreased seasonally. The price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - Styrene: No clear forward - looking view is provided in the data, only price changes are presented [6]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From July 10 to July 16, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.2, PTA spot price decreased by $20, and PTA processing fee increased by $19. The basis of daily average transaction is 2509(+5) [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term TA start - up has increased slightly, polyester load has declined, inventory has accumulated, and the basis has declined [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From July 10 to July 16, the MEG outer - market price decreased by $1, and the MEG coal - to - profit decreased by $8. The basis is around 09(+70) [3]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term domestic coal - to - MEG restart has led to an increase in the start - up rate. Saudi Arabian plants are restarting, and port inventory will accumulate next week [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From July 10 to July 16, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by $35, and the short - fiber profit decreased by $30 [3]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term supply has decreased due to the production cut of Ningbo Dafa. Production and sales have remained stable, and inventory has basically remained unchanged [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: From July 10 to July 16, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by $50, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by $455 [3]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory has remained stable, and Thai cup rubber price has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [3]. Styrene - Price Changes: From July 10 to July 16, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene decreased by $10, and the price of styrene decreased by $25 [6]. - Profit Changes: Styrene domestic profit remained at $4 on July 15 and 16, and EPS domestic profit decreased by $110 on July 16 compared to July 15 [6].